Radio's Future: Are You a Winner or Pretender?

Radio is about to go through a revolution! If you're curious about your future, rest assured it will be revealed to you by April of 2007. For those that can't wait, or want to get a head start, here are a few things to ponder.

In the next 16 months or less:

• The impact of Howard leaving Infinity will be known.
• The impact on Sirius will be known.
• The impact on XM will be known.
• The impact on the competitors in his markets will be known.
• The impact of Infinity's "Free-FM" initiative will be known.
• Clear Channel will launch a new FM-Talk Network.
• FM Talk will, uh, explode! But grow slow.
• Spanish will become a major format for mainstream broadcasters.
• Jack will be two plus years old. The story will be told.
• Disney/ABC will have a new owner.
• Univision will have a new owner.
• The owners that don't get the above will have to make a decision.
• HD's impact (or lack of) will be known.
• "Less Is More" and the impact will be known.
• The FCC Payola investigation will be completed.
• The PPM/Diary issue will be known.
• The podcasting/streaming debate with radio content will be solved. (This is a no brainer. Get your signal out there.)
• WiFi will be on in a lot of cities. Prepare for internet in the car.

Enough for you? But wait, there's more!

Here's a prediction or twelve!

• At least one, maybe two new networks will emerge. They will challenge the traditional networks with innovative programming & talent.
• The business of national business will experience an extreme makeover.
• Spotloads will decrease even further. (Except spoken word.)
• At least one radio group owner will have personnel changes at the top. Others will change their operating philosophy from corporate based to station based.
• Mel will be back in commercial radio somewhere. Did I say Mel? I meant Randy!
• You will have more competition than ever. (WiFi anyone?)
• The cost of high rated/high revenue talent will be very expensive.
• Expensive low rated talent will be gone, and fast!
• At least one additional radio show will emerge as the "hot" new show.
• At least one additional radio company will emerge as the "hot" new operator.
• At least one additional radio support company will emerge as the "hot" new company.
• Radio operations will change, or fail. The present operating philosophy will be modified. It has to! The current results are not acceptable.

So strap on your seat belt, get your P&L in order, load the guns, hire the best people you can, and get ready to rumble! (I know we can't use that guy without paying, but can I type "ready to rumble" without paying a fee?)

It's GAME ON!

The winners of the next 16 months will be positioned for the next 5-7 years. The pretenders will go home!

What can YOU do today to prepare for the upcoming revolution in radio?

Here are 10 suggestions.

1. Embrace change! Be open to new ideas! Re-think everything!
2. Get knowledge on technology (HD, WiFi, broadband, etc.) You don't have to be a geek, but with 27 million iPods sold in the past year, there is a trend you need to know about. Spend the money, get your brand on every platform.
3. Listen to consumers. Do research/homework. It's what they want, not what you want them to have. Don't assume.
4. Don't wait for your company to show you the way. You do it!
5. Create, innovate, look for the second right answer. The first right answer is already taken.
6. Assume there will be a failure somewhere along the way. No one is right 100% of the time. Keep trying!
7. Be different, but be smart about it. It has to be good and different. Bad & different won't work. (Remember "Blink" NY, or ask me about "The Wave" in SF, which was my very own failure.)
8. Respect the past, but don't live there. What you did last year means nothing next year.
9. Expect more from your staff, from yourself, and from your company. Respect talented managers. They are the key to "what's next."
10. Ask for help. You don't know everything.

Or,

Learn to speak Spanish and/or do a talk show.

Want to add to the list? Disagree? As always, your input is welcome. Reach me here - fig@figmedia1.com.

Thanks for your wonderful, passionate response to these thoughts.