The Music Cycle: The Extremes Are Here As Doldrums Approach - Part 1

So, where are we in the Music Cycle, I'm often asked ... Well, in September 2018 we're solidly in The Extremes with the beginning of the Doldrums appearing, as Top 40's ratings are slowing.

In the Extremes/Doldrums phase, Top 40 radio has always depended on the winning formula of Pop + Rhythm + Rock balance of music, but the times, they are a'changing.

But first, here's a refresher course: The Music Cycle is composed of three phases that have repeated every 10 years since 1956, where the balance of core styles differs from phase to phase.

• Birth/Pop Phase -- plenty of Pop hits plus Rock & Hip-Hop/R&B are more pop, more melodic.
• Extremes -- moves toward the edges, away from Pop and Top 40's ratings begin to dip.
• Doldrums--Mainstream Top 40s R&B and Rock edges soften and much of Rock and R&B music is avoided entirely. Mainstream Top 40s ratings dip even more.

What causes the next phase of each music cycle is the changing of the music tastes of the masses when one genre is missing or overexposed so that the pendulum swings. When you have too much of one thing, the leading edge grows tired of it first, then the masses, and then they gravitate toward fresh new sounds or an under-exposed one.

The factors that can cause this to shift into rebirth phase and the cycle beginning again is the emergence of a superstar, a new music platform or technological advance. In times past ... Elvis in '56, the Beatles in '64, new music platform MTV in '82, Napster in the '90s, American Idol in '02, mobile phones/streaming services in the '10s and in 2013, music technology/digital platforms. The intensity of a phase is governed by how deep the dominant platform goes into the hot genre.

In 2018, the amount of pure Pop music hits have slowed down, with more of the hits of that genre being Rhythmic Pop, very few Pop Alternative/Rock titles crossing, while Hip-Hop and R&B - have exploded. All of this was predicted a year ago in my article for All Access--Extremes of the Music Cycle Are Approaching

We know Pop music is the glue that holds Top 40 together. The key factor in both the Extremes and Doldrums is the slowing of the amount of Pop music on the charts. Dance music hits have always been a key to healthy music phases and again EDM/Dance music injected a renewed energy into Pop music on Top 40 over the past three years as Pop superstars had some of their biggest hits with this genre. But Dance has lost some steam and so has Pop overall with the list of superstar Pop acts getting smaller. Newer Pop superstars such as Ariana Grande and Camila Cabello are replacing former Pop superstars, but the overall list is diminishing.

So we're in a time of change, as Pop slows and Hip-Hop and R&B are filling the void in popularity. It's not a surprise that Hip-Hop is exploding, as it has been the center of the music for Gen Z and it's the music that Millennials grew up on as teenagers during the Extremes phase of the early '00s when there was a Hip-Hop explosion. The superstars of Hip-Hop -- Notorious BIG, 2Pac and others weren't embraced by Top 40 radio in the '90s, otherwise Hip-Hop and R&B might have had an even greater impact earlier on, and still resonate with Gen X, but this genre is currently seeing a new life as Throwback Gold for a lot of radio formats.

So, it's no surprise that Hip-Hop is experiencing the dominant period it is currently enjoying with consumers. Plus, Hip-Hop has been used all over radio and TV commercials over the past 10 years (which hadn't previously been the case). Thus, Hip-Hop is more familiar and popular to the masses and is experiencing the dominant period that it is currently enjoying with consumers.

At the same time new consumer metrics are playing an important role in moving us into the Extremes phase of the music cycles. Top 40 radio has always followed consumer data since the birth of the format. Consumer data started with sales and now radio programmers have streaming and Shazam (both strongly influenced by radio airplay). Labels are monetized on sales and streams from their music, so that is very influential in determining songs slated for promotion. However, it's very important to note that over the past 30 years, radio has mostly depended on callout research, using a targeted sample representing the masses and scoring, and then ranking songs based on passion

But more and more in 2018, programmers are using all of these forms of consumer research in determining the level of airplay spins, and that affects Top 40 airplay and the charts.

No question that today the hottest genre is Hip-Hop and R&B and streaming platforms have become heavily dominated by them. And while not as big an influence, Hip-Hop is still a big factor in sales. But callout research that's more focused on the tastes of the masses is still Pop-centered, with Hip-Hop increasing in influence and Pop Alternative still popular. With so many metrics pointing out that Hip-Hop and R&B are music's most popular overall genres, Top 40 must move more and more Rhythmic in order to play the hits. We're also seeing less Pop Alternative/Pop Rock songs crossing to Top 40, even though this genre remains one of the most popular overall. So as we are deep into the Extremes with a slowing of the amount of Pop hits, less Pop Alternative and more Hip-Hop and R&B, Top 40 radio is having an increasingly tough time in keeping that ideal Pop + Rhythm (Hip-Hop) + Rock balance.

Another factor hurting Top 40's ability to create the hits is the dramatic increase in releases to Top 40 radio that we saw in 2017, and again in 2018. Because of the sheer amount of new music to consider for adds, songs are given a shorter amount of time to move up the charts. When streaming/sales slow down, unfortunately both labels and radio look at that as an indication that as the song is peaking, programmers lose confidence, spin those songs less and thus the song slows down, then peaks on the chart then drops in spins. But often at the same time these same songs that are losing streams, sales and are peaking on the charts, thery are still developing in callout and becoming hits for radio's target audience. So the sad fact is that we know streaming and sales charts are really six to eight weeks ahead of callout (the gauge of where the average audience is), but when the song peaks/drops on the chart, programmers give up and a potential hit for radio is lost. There are exceptions, as sometimes there are songs that continue to receive strong airplay because they are so big in callout, and programmers can't ignore them.

However 90% of the time a song drops on the chart before hitting the Top 10 even as that song shows promise in callout and programmers give up on the song. The end result is the power rotation airplay that could have created a new boom of sales and streaming for labels and solidified songs as hits for radio never happens, and we're seeing more hits lost at Top 40 than I've seen in 30 years.

Top 40 has always been known as the mother-and-daughter format, but only when mother and daughters agree on the hits. That's when you see Top 40 radio often rank #1 in 6+ ratings, winning big 12-34 Persons and 25-54 Persons, but this happens mostly in the Pop Rebirth phase. In the Extremes, as Doldrums approach Top 40, ratings are down with many leading Top 40s out of the Top 10 in 6+ ratings, many even beaten in the Top 40 core target 18-34 Women. Now winning in overall ratings are more gold-based formats including AC, Hot AC and all-gold formats -- Classic Hits, Adult Hits and Classic Rock. These formats are winning even bigger than normal 25-54 Persons, and are also are attracting big 18-34 numbers. This slowing of Top 40 radio has always been a sign of every Doldrums phase, as an increasing amount of people prefer gold to current music now.

Another indication of the Doldrums approaching is when gold acts have hits and remakes of former hits become hits today. Now you see former teen idols and older bands making comebacks. Hip-Hop Throwback gold from the '90s and '00s has found a home on Top 40 over the past few years. Older hits are being remade, ie. '80s hits such as "Africa" by Weezer. Even House music, a popular genre from the '90s, has made a comeback with several hit songs including "One Kiss" by Calvin Harris & Dua Lipa. All of the above, again, are indications that a lot of people prefer older familiar songs/formats/genres to newer music ... again, a sign of Doldrums approaching.

Here's how the Music Cycle looks through the ages, from The Pop Phase, where all three core genres Pop, Rock and Rhythm/Hip-Hop were pop, now going into Extremes in 2018.

Next week: Guy's Music Cycle update continues with a deep look at the music cycle over the past decade examining the rise of Hip-Hop and R&B and the decline of Pop on the popularity charts, as well as his conclusion and recommendations.