Cycles

"We're at the end of the format's 'Rebirth' phase, pre-'Extremes', as everything moves super-pop, then in a rhythmic direction."

I have long been a proponent of the theory that Top 40's musical spectrum shifts through cycles in approximate 10-year increments. The smarter programmers pay close attention to these cycles and compensate accordingly, so as not to burn out the available music supply. Over the years, this theory, time and time again, has been eerily on-the-money.

My latest observations on Top 40's current place in this decades-based music cycle was actually triggered by a recent e-mail conversation between myself, Edison's Sean Ross and WBLI/Nassau-Suffolk PD Jeremy Rice, who shared his own observations of where the format now sits, going back two 10-year cycles. "Music feels very 1989 right now," Rice had said. "I was on air at WPXY/Rochester back then and remembered just how good the music sounded at that time; there was tons of Pop/Rhythmic music from artists like Bobby Brown, Paula Abdul, Milli Vanilli, Janet Jackson, Tone Loc, Young MC and Madonna all dominating the charts. Now, in 2009, we have Flo Rida, Pink, Lady Gaga, Beyoncé, Kanye West, T.I. and Britney -- it's the same feeling!"

"Of course Jeremy's right," said Zapoleon. "We're at the end of the format's 'Rebirth' phase, pre-'Extremes', as everything moves super-pop, then in a rhythmic direction. I have to credit the brilliant Brian Thomas, who is VP of CBS Oldies programming who said to me, 'I believe in your 10-year music cycle theory, but I also believe there's even more similarity between 20 years than 10.' Brian believes the 20-year versions of the music cycle are even more intensely close and I think he's right."

Wait; it gets even stranger: Forget 10, 20, or even 30 years ago -- there's now a song out that successfully sampled a timeless song from exactly 40 years ago. Steam's "Na Na Hey Hey Kiss Him Goodbye" is prominently featured in Kristinia Debarge's "Goodbye." I love the song, and it's amazing it's taken so long for someone to use a sample from 'NaNa...' since it's one of the most recognizable songs from the '60s, having been used so many times at sporting events when a team loses.

If you believe that today's version of Top 40 is even more mass appeal than ever, you're not alone. Look at the emergence of pop/dance stuff from the likes of Lady Gaga, Britney, etc. Even the hip-hop stuff sounds more melodic. Add to that the emergence of the young "Disney-type" artists like Miley Cyrus, Jonas Brothers, Demi Lovato, Taylor Swift, etc. Just where does that put the big hand of Top 40 on the current cycle clock?

We're at the peak of the 'Rebirth' phase of the 10-year music cycle, when all key music styles that make up the musical spectrum -- rock, pop and R&B become "super-pop." "Justin and Britney are king and queen again, just like they were 10 years ago. Rhythmic Top 40 sounds more pop with Britney, Justin, Rihanna and rhythmic/pop artists like Flo Rida dominating the charts. Even the Rock-based music that's successful at Top 40, like the Fray, All-American Rejects and Coldplay, is more pop-sounding.

At the same time, Top 40 has distanced itself a bit from Hot AC by playing fewer titles from the Pop/Rock and Pop/Alternative categories. But don't worry! It's all part of the cycle. As you look at pop music over the past few years, it's been more about pure pop, with Sara Bareilles, Natasha Bedingfield and the teen pop with Miley and Jonas Brothers, but that has begun to change -- even Miley is trying to mature with her great new ballad. What's happened at the end of one decade and beginning of the next for the last 50 years looks like it will happen one more time as the 10-year music cycle moves into the 'Extremes' phase, which has been Rhythmic for all but one decade. The beginning of the end of 'Rebirth' happens when every genre becomes super-pop; that's followed by the backlash from the cutting-edge crowd who gets sick of mass-appeal radio because it loses its variety with everything being so Pop, and they move on to Rock or Urban stations.

Pointing to CBS Radio's recent launch of Top 40 outlets in New York and Los Angeles (with more possibly on the drawing board), that's just a byproduct of where we are in the current cycle. We're beginning to see what we saw in the late '70s and '80s: the launch of a second Top 40 in some markets, with the new one leaning in this 'Extremes' version of Mainstream Top 40; in this case, more Rhythmic leaning. Because of the high turnover of rhythm titles, and pop to a lesser extent, you begin to see fewer rock titles. In the next two years you will see the burn out of super-pop, and more R&B and rhythm songs dominating the charts by being played more than other styles because of two Top 40s in some markets.

As the cycle continues to move, an inevitable chain of events will be set in motion, You will see fewer Rock-based hits because Top 40 radio will be more focused on Rhythm and Pop, but that results in less musical variety for mainstream Top 40, thus, sending listeners to Alternative and also creating a compelling need to go to Hot AC again to hear this music.

But that's not all. You will then see record labels create a self-fulfilling prophecy by producing less rock-based product for Top 40 in favor of more rhythmic-pop and hip- hop, so Top 40 radio has no choice but to play only these styles. By being more Rhythmic, Top 40 then forces the cutting-edge crowd to crave more extreme and intense R&B and hip-hop, and they turn to Urban and Rhythmic Top 40, which will have no real pop flavor. With history repeating with the 10-year pop cycle once again, one thing both radio and record labels must remember is that we all can learn a lesson from the effects of the 'Extremes.'

History Lesson

Great programmers can always minimize the usual effects of the music cycle for their format by maintaining a balance of all the key music styles: Pop, R&B, and yes, Rock too. Back in 2001 at Z100/New York, Tom Poleman, Sharon Dastur and Paul "Cubby" Bryant's careful reaction to the cycle maintained Z100's dominance in the ratings because they refused to avoid rock, despite the already rhythmic nature of the New York market, and the rest of the country moving more rhythmic and less rock. They knew Top 40 was about stylistic variety as well as playing the hits, and the format eventually struggles when it moves away from playing a balance of rock, pop and R&B. Record companies must continue to produce a variety of great styles of music because the consumers still want rock, pop and R&B in all shapes, sizes and variations. But even if radio overreacts to the extremes -- which would be a BIG mistake -- there is an entire generation of teens and young adults who have grown up without radio who will still embrace this musical variety for their iPod, cell phones and on their favorite Internet site or radio station. Radio can't let that happen, because these people are the future of music and they are the audience radio needs to survive in 10 years.