Facebook to #1?

A blogger recently attracted a lot of attention - and press - when he projected <http://jacquesmattheij.com/Facebook+to+overtake+Google+in+the+next+18+months> Facebook's rise to becoming the #1 site on the web (worldwide). Using data from Compete and Alexa, he projected that Facebook would overtake Google as the most popular site on the web in early 2012. Silicon Alley Insider <http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-google-facebook-unique-visitors-2010-8?utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=SAI_COTD_082410> ran the same projection with ComScore data and came away with a longer timeline for Facebook's triumph, putting it about a year later.

Currently, Facebook's monthly traffic is about 2/3 of what Google's is, but the gap is closing quickly. In March 2009, Facebook only had a little over 1/3 the traffic that Google had. All of these projections are interesting, based on the frequently-faulty premise of "if things stay the same as they are now." Rarely, especially in the online world, do things stay the same. Case in point: Facebook just surpassed Orkut <http://www.dmwmedia.com/news/2010/08/25/report-facebook-overtakes-google039s-orkut-india> to become the #1 social media site in India.